Should We Be Questioning the 5-Year-Old Arkle Stat?

I’ve seen a few people online dismiss Narciso Has as an Arkle contender purely because he is a five-year-old. To be clear, I’m using Narciso Has as an example here — he may or may not go down the Arkle route. My point is the statistic itself, and whether it really tells us what some people think it does.

The stat is simple: five-year-olds are 0/12 in the Arkle since the weight allowance was removed. On the surface, that looks pretty compelling. But I think it’s a lazy use of stats to simply conclude that five-year-olds can’t win the race.

The important question isn’t just “what happened?” It’s “why did it happen?” Are these horses losing because they are five years old, or are there other reasons behind those results? When you dig into the individual runners, I think the latter is much more convincing.

Lulamba – 2026

Lulamba is the most recent example used to support the trend, but context is key. Lulamba isn’t obviously a two-mile horse. Nicky Henderson had already suggested this before the race, and this season has indicated that he will be pushed out in trip. He also made a bad mistake two out in the Arkle.

So is Lulamba evidence of a five-year-old failing to win because he was five? I don’t think so. There’s a much more obvious explanation: he wasn’t necessarily an Arkle horse at two miles, and he made a costly mistake at a crucial point in the race.

Majborough – 2025

Majborough is perhaps an even better example of why the raw statistic doesn’t tell the full story. He ploughed through multiple fences in the Arkle and still nearly got back up to win. A clean round of jumping and he may well have ended the trend there and then.

A year later, on the same track and distance in the Champion Chase, he made similar jumping mistakes. Mark Walsh also suggested that he needed a step up in trip and a switch to the new track. Again, there’s a much more obvious explanation for his performances than simply saying: he was five.

Saint Sam, Riviere D’Etel and Haut En Couleurs – 2022

Then we have the three five-year-olds who ran in the 2022 Arkle. The race was won by Edwardstone, who went on to establish himself as a two-mile specialist. But look at the horses being used to strengthen the five-year-old argument.

Saint Sam unseated. Haut En Couleurs finished sixth after falling in the race before and had only ever won a beginners’ chase. Riviere D’Etel finished fifth and had consistently run below her rating at Cheltenham.

Again, are these horses losing because they were five? Or were there other, more obvious reasons?

The outsiders in the sample

There’s another point worth considering. The 0/12 sample includes horses such as His Excellency at 80/1 and Marodima at 25/1. It’s difficult to use those horses as meaningful evidence that being five was the reason they couldn’t win. If a horse is 80/1, there are probably several reasons why the market doesn’t expect it to win — and its age isn’t necessarily one of them.

A statistic doesn’t tell you why

This is the problem I have with using the 0/12 record as a reason to completely dismiss a five-year-old. The statistic tells us what has happened. It doesn’t tell us why it happened. And when you look at the individual horses behind the number, there are plenty of alternative explanations: unsuitable trips, jumping mistakes, poor Cheltenham form, horses who weren’t good enough and, in some cases, horses who were never realistic contenders.

That doesn’t mean the statistic should be ignored. It’s certainly interesting that no five-year-old has won the Arkle since the weight allowance was removed. But I don’t think it’s strong enough evidence to say that being five is the reason they haven’t won.

So if Narciso Has does go down the Arkle route, I won’t be ruling him out simply because he’s five. I’ll judge him on the things that actually matter: his ability, his form, his suitability for two miles, his jumping and how he is likely to cope with Cheltenham. And for me, Narciso Has has buckets of quality.

The statistic is worth knowing. But it’s certainly not enough to put me off.