Your antepost pick just lost in the run up to Cheltenham. Time to panic?

There are few things more frustrating for an antepost punter than seeing your Cheltenham Festival selection get beaten in the weeks or months leading up to the meeting. Almost immediately, doubt starts to creep in and it's easy to start questioning your judgement and, in some cases, abandon a selection that you were perfectly happy with only a few weeks earlier.

But should one defeat really be enough to change your opinion?

I’ve taken a look into the numbers from the 2026 Cheltenham Festival, looking across the non-handicap races, there were 16 races in total. Of the eventual winners, 12 were beaten at least once in the run-up that season, meaning that only four went to the Festival unbeaten during the campaign. Those beaten that went on to win were:

• Kargese (twice)

• Lossiemouth

• Il Etait Temps

• Kitzbuhel

• King Rakso Grey

• Heart Wood

• Home By The Lee

• White Noise

• Gaelic Warrior

• Johnnys Jury

• Dinoblue

• Apolon De Charnie (Lost in France twice and then didn’t even run for Willie Mullins beforehand)

In 2025, nine from the possible 16 non-handicap races lost too. In other words, most of those winners arrived at Cheltenham having already tasted defeat that season.

Why Am I flagging this?

There are two main reasons I wanted to highlight these numbers.

1. Don't abandon your original selection just because it gets beaten.

If you've backed a horse antepost for the Cheltenham Festival, there should be a good reason behind that selection. So long as you feel these reasons for backing the horse remain valid, there may be no need to react and a defeat in the build-up shouldn't automatically change that assessment.

Of course, there are occasions when a poor performance raises genuine concerns. If a horse is showing signs of regressing, jumping badly or failing to stay its trip, then it's right to reassess. But there are plenty of other explanations for a defeat. Some horses take time to reach peak fitness; take Golden Ace as an example. She’s got a terrible record first time out.

The important thing is to distinguish between a genuine warning sign and a defeat that doesn't materially change your original opinion.

It's easy to see another horse winning impressively and feel the need to jump ship, particularly when your own selection has just been beaten. But don't let one result cloud the reasoning that led you to the horse in the first place. If you still believe in your selection, there's no need to panic.

2. Factor potential defeats into your antepost strategy.

There's also a more practical angle to this.

If you have a strong opinion about a horse for a particular Cheltenham Festival race, but expect it to lose in the buildup or first time out, consider whether it's worth waiting before placing your antepost bet. If you anticipate that the horse could get beaten in that prep race, but still believe it has the right profile for its Festival target, you may get the opportunity to back it at a bigger price afterwards.

It's a tactic I use myself, and one worth considering when assessing certain races. Rather than automatically getting involved early, sometimes it pays to wait for the horse to run, particularly if you believe the market might overreact to a defeat.

Naturally, there's a risk involved. The horse might win, run well enough to shorten in price, or the market may move for other reasons. But if you have a strong opinion about its Festival prospects, a loss in the buildup isn't necessarily something to fear. It could even present a better betting opportunity.

The Willie Mullins factor

One notable detail in the figures is that eight of the 12 horses beaten earlier in the season were trained by Willie Mullins.

Part of this can be attributed to Mullins often starting some of his horses' campaigns later in the season, therefore competing against race fit horses. This aside, Mullins is also renowned for his ability to bring horses back to their best if there’s issue or after a loss, so if you’re on one of his especially and it losses, don’t lose the faith.

Conclusion

A defeat before Cheltenham doesn't mean you should lose faith in your selection. It's something I factor into my own antepost betting, and I regularly highlight potential defeats in my market previews so members can take them into account when placing their bets.

You can access my antepost selections and market previews by signing up to our membership below.